Do I ship it?

Games › Immersive Sim › Immersive Sim + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Post-apocalyptic

Of 70 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 169 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×8.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.9M, ×4619 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 169 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 169 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $3.2k → $19k → $1.9k → $88k → $16k → $17k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $12k (exactly $11,988)
Top 25% $121k (exactly $120,520)
Top 5% $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 159
Announced 169
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 183,405 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $6.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 4 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 169 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M Kenshi 2018 · $89M Cruelty Squad 2021 · $14M The Last Caretaker 2025 · EA · $14M Infection Free Zone 2024 · EA · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Cruelty Squad older $19.99 23,209 96% 696k $14M (exactly $13,918,437) Consumer Softproducts
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
VEIN · EA $19.99 11,539 87% 346k $6.9M (exactly $6,919,938) Ramjet Studios
Atomfall $49.99 4,526 76% 136k $6.8M (exactly $6,787,642) Rebellion
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition $19.99 6,619 65% 199k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,414) GSC Game World
Project Silverfish · EA $29.99 3,138 93% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,823,259) Siris Pendrake
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Call of Prypiat - Enhanced Edition $19.99 3,273 65% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,962,818) GSC Game World
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Clear Sky - Enhanced Edition $19.99 2,698 59% 81k $1.6M (exactly $1,617,991) GSC Game World

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.