Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Martial Arts

Only 12 developers shipped a Martial-Arts Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Eastern Era, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $68k, ×45 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×1515 the market median. Revenue is up 20535% on the market; 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 45.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 20535% on the market, 24 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.3k → $251k
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $68k (exactly $68,032)
Top 25% $251k (exactly $251,149)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 34
Announced 24
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20535% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 6,731 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $68k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
Eastern Era $24.99 3,028 65% 91k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,092) FunYoo Games
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
JIANGHU CHRONICLES $17.99 2,046 70% 61k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,226) 一品阁
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software
Tales of Justice Academy: Winds Arise $10.99 460 71% 14k $152k (exactly $151,662) 九芽川 Ninth Leaf
LES MILLS XR BODYCOMBAT $29.99 121 85% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) Odders Lab
Bloody Knuckles Street Boxing · EA older $14.99 210 52% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Luvseatshawty
Fight School Simulator $9.99 227 88% 6.8k $68k (exactly $68,032) Queen
Golden Gloves VR $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Engine Room VR
Road To Champion: Boxing Simulator · EA $10.99 4 25% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) Gunersoft
Cage Empire: MMA Manager · EA $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) RedBit Labs
Accurate Adjacent Ballistics Simulator $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) MagusForge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.