Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Detective

Of 130 developers who shipped a Detective Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 216 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×276 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 216 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 216 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 130
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $6.9k → $4.8k → $5.8k → $6.1k → $17k → $3.1k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 130
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,565)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $45,420)
Top 5% $413k (exactly $412,987)
Developers, 2 yr 130
Released games 294
Announced 216
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Puzzle
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 37,584 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 216 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Contraband Police older $29.99 24,882 95% 746k $22M (exactly $22,386,335) Crazy Rocks
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Pathologic 2 older $34.99 9,554 92% 287k $10M (exactly $10,028,834) Ice-Pick Lodge
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Cyber Manhunt older $9.99 14,520 92% 436k $4.4M (exactly $4,351,644) Aluba Van+
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
DEEMO -Reborn- older $24.99 3,188 87% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,044) Rayark International Limited
No Case Should Remain Unsolved older $6.99 10,332 96% 310k $2.2M (exactly $2,166,620) Somi
Breakout 13 older $9.99 6,899 87% 207k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,630) ALT Lab
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Desktop Explorer $17.99 2,077 96% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,120,957) Recurring Dream
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
FLAM EVAW $9.99 1,378 95% 41k $413k (exactly $412,987) 北京万合瑞晟文化传媒有限公司
The Darkest Files $19.99 668 95% 20k $401k (exactly $400,600) Paintbucket Games
Game Of Fate 3:Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.