Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Snow

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Snow Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Snow

Only 18 developers shipped a Snow Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Assetto Corsa Rally, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×7.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.8M, ×5259 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 37 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Snow
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $135k → $1.9k → $896 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Snow: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $11k (exactly $10,518)
Top 25% $251k (exactly $250,960)
Top 5% $7.9M (exactly $7,878,673)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 38
Announced 37
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Snow
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Driving
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 16,275 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $7.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Assetto Corsa Rally · EA $29.99 8,757 87% 263k $7.9M (exactly $7,878,673) Supernova Games Studios
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
Lushfoil Photography Sim $14.99 1,718 91% 52k $773k (exactly $772,585) Matt2
PANELKI older $7.99 2,404 86% 72k $576k (exactly $576,239) Alexander Gromyko
Above the Snow $24.99 383 75% 11k $287k (exactly $287,135) Above the Desk
Arctic Motel Simulator $17.99 465 88% 14k $251k (exactly $250,960) One Slice of Pizza Games
Snow Plowing Simulator $15.99 281 64% 8.4k $135k (exactly $134,796) FreeMind S.A.
Climber: Sky is the Limit older $21.99 142 69% 4.3k $94k (exactly $93,677) A2 Softworks, Art Games Studio S.A.
Northern Lights · EA older $11.99 236 63% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,889) MadGoat Studio
Snowed Under | 雪葬 $7.99 194 60% 5.8k $47k (exactly $46,502) Chilla's Art
Octohill Ski Tycoon $8.99 41 85% 1.2k $11k (exactly $11,058) DeuxBaguettes
Animal Simulator $8.99 39 30% 1.2k $11k (exactly $10,518) Imperian Online - Core
Thaw $8.99 25 100% 750 $6.7k (exactly $6,742) paochanz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.