Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Dark Fantasy

Of 72 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 146 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×557 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 146 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 146 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $53k → $36k → $1.2k → $898 → $3.0k → $16k → $4.1k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,452)
Top 25% $91k (exactly $91,364)
Top 5% $834k (exactly $834,022)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 162
Announced 146
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 67,348 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 146 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Rest for the Wicked · EA older $39.99 66,102 80% 2.0M $79M (exactly $79,302,569) Moon Studios GmbH
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Weird West: Definitive Edition older $39.99 3,962 77% 119k $4.8M (exactly $4,753,211) WolfEye Studios
Fatekeeper · EA $9.99 10,605 80% 318k $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) Paraglacial
Dark Messiah of Might & Magic older $9.99 9,331 89% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,796,501) Arkane Studios
Spellcaster University older $24.99 3,424 83% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,566,973) Sneaky Yak Studio
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Mage Arena · EA $2.99 17,800 91% 534k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,660) jrsjams
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd
Thief Gold (1999) older $6.99 3,465 92% 104k $727k (exactly $726,610) Looking Glass Studios
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Devil Spire Falls · EA $14.99 1,068 94% 32k $480k (exactly $480,280) Ithiro Sumi
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe
Monomyth · EA $19.99 579 91% 17k $347k (exactly $347,226) Rat Tower
The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot $9.99 999 98% 30k $299k (exactly $299,400) Stéphane Le Roy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.