Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Economy game?

Economy + Exploration

Of 215 developers who shipped an Exploration Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 466 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2676 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 466 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 466 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 215
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $27k → $3.0k → $29k → $12k → $7.2k → $4.0k (still earning) → $7.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 215
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 25% $84k (exactly $83,958)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827)
Developers, 2 yr 215
Released games 444
Announced 466
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 74,378 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $83k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 87 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 466 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
The Bus $39.99 7,831 73% 235k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,851) TML-Studios
Two Point Museum $29.99 9,626 95% 289k $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) Two Point Studios
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Ratopia $22.00 4,639 87% 139k $3.1M (exactly $3,061,740) Cassel Games
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Surviving Mars: Relaunched $39.99 2,202 55% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,641,739) Haemimont Games
Go-Go Town! $27.99 2,476 93% 74k $2.1M (exactly $2,079,097) Prideful Sloth

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.