Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Hex Grid game?

Exploration + Hex Grid

Of 35 developers who shipped an Exploration Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×25 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×619 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 55 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 55 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $184k → $18k → $29k → $66k → $8.6k → $4.8k (still earning) → $3.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Median $12k (exactly $11,870)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,088)
Top 5% $294k (exactly $293,853)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 80
Announced 55
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Hex Grid; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Management
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 4,094 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
Galactic Civilizations IV older $39.99 2,207 72% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) Stardock Entertainment
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
Curious Expedition older $14.99 3,951 91% 119k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) Maschinen-Mensch
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Expeditions: Conquistador older $19.99 1,228 77% 37k $736k (exactly $736,432) Logic Artists
King's Bounty: The Legend older $6.99 3,255 90% 98k $683k (exactly $682,574) Katauri Interactive
道衍诀 · EA older $11.99 988 49% 30k $355k (exactly $355,384) 宁德动游网络科技有限公司
Revival: Recolonization older $29.99 335 69% 10k $301k (exactly $301,400) HeroCraft PC
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.