Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Shop Keeper?

Exploration + Shop Keeper

Of 51 developers who shipped an Exploration Shop Keeper in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 143 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.9M, ×4199 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 143 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 143 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $91k → $135k → $4.0k → $5.1k (still earning) → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,455)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,395)
Top 25% $80k (exactly $79,720)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 59
Announced 143
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 365% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Shop Keeper; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Life Sim, Simulation, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 55% positive over 39,372 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $79k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 4 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 143 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Chop Chop Inc. $12.99 1,258 90% 38k $490k (exactly $490,243) NullRef Entertainment
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Fell & Sell $9.99 1,428 84% 43k $428k (exactly $427,972) Art Games Studio S.A.
Rise of Gun older $12.99 1,094 84% 33k $426k (exactly $426,332) PimpGameStudio
Fuel Harvest Together $13.99 879 69% 26k $369k (exactly $368,916) Say2Sun
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
Wasteland Bites $9.99 440 93% 13k $132k (exactly $131,868) CosmicDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.