Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Exploration game?

Crafting + Exploration

Of 759 developers who shipped a Crafting Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,098 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4449 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 2,098 games are announced against 450 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 2,098 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 759
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $9.0k → $7.2k → $7.2k → $9.6k → $4.3k → $8.0k (still earning) → $6.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 759
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,994)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $110,589)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103)
Developers, 2 yr 759
Released games 2,000
Announced 2,098
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Sandbox, Open World
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,139,639 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 362 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,098 games are announced against 450 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
Enshrouded · EA older $39.99 93,426 85% 2.8M $112M (exactly $112,083,172) Keen Games GmbH
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Gothic 1 Remake $49.99 26,258 88% 788k $39M (exactly $39,379,123) Alkimia Interactive
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.