Do I ship it?

Games › City Builder › City Builder + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration City Builder?

City Builder + Exploration

Of 187 developers who shipped an Exploration City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 365 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4407 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 365 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 365 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 187
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $9.7k → $2.9k → $1.9k → $6.7k → $4.8k → $7.5k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 187
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,823)
Top 25% $107k (exactly $106,747)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477)
Developers, 2 yr 187
Released games 454
Announced 365
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Exploration; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Base Building, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 73,665 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 100 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 365 games are announced against 100 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Anno 1800 2019 · $54M Dwarf Fortress 2022 · $26M Anno 117: Pax Romana 2025 · $22M FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time 2025 · $21M Bellwright 2024 · EA · $18M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Bellwright · EA older $29.99 20,130 80% 604k $18M (exactly $18,110,961) Donkey Crew
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
Ni no Kuni™ II: Revenant Kingdom older $59.99 8,100 82% 243k $15M (exactly $14,577,570) LEVEL5 Inc.
Two Point Museum $29.99 9,626 95% 289k $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) Two Point Studios
Smalland: Survive the Wilds older $34.99 8,086 82% 243k $8.5M (exactly $8,487,874) Max Ent Games Ltd
Space Haven $24.99 10,267 85% 308k $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) Bugbyte Ltd.
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Ratopia $22.00 4,639 87% 139k $3.1M (exactly $3,061,740) Cassel Games
Techtonica $29.99 3,076 64% 92k $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) Fire Hose Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.