Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Exploration + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 22 developers who shipped an Exploration Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×17 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $2.4k. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 26 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $6.3k → $49k → $33k → $690 (still earning) → $8.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,065)
Top 5% $123k (exactly $123,308)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 35
Announced 26
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Roguelike Deckbuilder; all of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,294 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  2. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  3. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  4. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  5. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  10. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  11. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced
  12. + Job SimulatorPoor odds31 devs · median $23k · 56 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Vault of the Void 2022 · $1.4M Last Evil 2020 · $1.1M Zet Zillions 2024 · $216k For The Warp 2022 · $195k FORWARD: Escape the Fold - Ultimate Edition 2022 · $183k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Vault of the Void older $17.99 2,529 92% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) Spider Nest Games
Last Evil older $9.99 3,559 94% 107k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,632) Flametorch
Zet Zillions older $9.99 722 87% 22k $216k (exactly $216,383) OTA IMON Studios
For The Warp older $14.99 434 72% 13k $195k (exactly $195,170) Massive Galaxy Studios
FORWARD: Escape the Fold - Ultimate Edition older $9.99 611 85% 18k $183k (exactly $183,117) Two Tiny Dice
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Frostrain 2 $10.99 374 89% 11k $123k (exactly $123,308) nemonan
Fantasy of Caocao 2 older $8.99 290 83% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game)
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Souls of White Star · EA older $14.99 142 83% 4.3k $64k (exactly $63,857) Souls of Star Game Lab.
Tiny Kingdom $10.99 150 79% 4.5k $49k (exactly $49,455) neltile
Inkborn · EA $19.99 74 79% 2.2k $44k (exactly $44,378) Acram Digital
Touhou Rinrinki ~ Crafts of the Lucky Beast · EA $9.99 117 92% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) Starcrow Dev
Command Deck · EA $14.99 74 98% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) k-critical
Sigilfarer: A Dice-Rolling Roguelite $11.99 33 72% 990 $12k (exactly $11,870) Viabo Games
Nightpark Journal $5.99 48 93% 1.4k $8.6k (exactly $8,626) 升海宫
BlueCloud Summit · EA $14.99 18 88% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) Star Surfer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.