Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration RTS?

RTS + Exploration

Of 100 developers who shipped an Exploration RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 181 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×5.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×1376 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 181 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 181 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 100
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $5.8k → $900 → $1.6k → $4.5k → $7.2k → $53k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 100
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,091)
Top 25% $183k (exactly $182,908)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213)
Developers, 2 yr 100
Released games 268
Announced 181
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Exploration; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 39,768 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 181 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Anno 1800 2019 · $54M Anno 117: Pax Romana 2025 · $22M The Riftbreaker 2021 · $20M IXION 2022 · $16M The Wandering Village 2025 · $7.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion older $19.99 10,243 93% 307k $6.1M (exactly $6,142,727) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2 older $19.99 7,206 84% 216k $4.3M (exactly $4,321,438) Brilliant Game Studios
Dungeons 4 older $49.99 2,392 86% 72k $3.6M (exactly $3,587,282) Realmforge Studios
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Desynced $29.99 1,879 79% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Stage Games Inc.
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.