Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Exploration game?

Loot + Exploration

Of 248 developers who shipped a Loot Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 564 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2212 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 564 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 564 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 248
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $6.6k → $2.1k → $6.7k → $7.2k → $4.4k → $4.5k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 248
Bottom 30% $958 (exactly $958)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,498)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $47,652)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110)
Developers, 2 yr 248
Released games 609
Announced 564
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 134,088 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 7 in 10 of the 119 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 564 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Wayfinder $24.99 25,104 60% 753k $19M (exactly $18,820,469) Airship Syndicate
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin older $39.99 11,845 82% 355k $14M (exactly $14,210,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Minecraft Dungeons older $19.99 17,941 90% 538k $11M (exactly $10,759,218) Mojang Studios, ‪Double Eleven
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
SurrounDead · EA older $11.99 24,538 91% 736k $8.8M (exactly $8,826,319) Zurvivor
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion $69.99 1,838 63% 55k $3.9M (exactly $3,859,249) Marvelous Inc.
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
SpiritVale · EA $14.99 4,755 48% 143k $2.1M (exactly $2,138,324) Baikun Interactive
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.