Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Life Sim?

Exploration + Life Sim

Of 426 developers who shipped an Exploration Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 947 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×9.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×3539 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 947 games are announced against 226 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 947 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 426
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $6.7k → $6.3k → $23k → $11k → $3.1k → $4.5k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 426
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $57,542)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827)
Developers, 2 yr 426
Released games 1,030
Announced 947
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Life Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Open World
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 118,456 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $57k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 256 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 947 games are announced against 226 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
Crime Scene Cleaner older $29.99 32,469 98% 974k $29M (exactly $29,212,359) President Studio
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Bellwright · EA older $29.99 20,130 80% 604k $18M (exactly $18,110,961) Donkey Crew
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Two Point Museum $29.99 9,626 95% 289k $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) Two Point Studios
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Luma Island $19.99 11,204 84% 336k $6.7M (exactly $6,719,039) Feel Free Games
Sengoku Dynasty $29.99 6,592 74% 198k $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) Superkami

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.