Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Card Battler?

Exploration + Card Battler

Of 66 developers who shipped an Exploration Card Battler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 132 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×17 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×429 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 132 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 132 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $147k → $23k → $9.9k → $11k → $7.2k → $1.4k (still earning) → $8.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $836 (exactly $836)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,065)
Top 5% $204k (exactly $203,898)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 153
Announced 132
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Card Battler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 4,910 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 132 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
Vault of the Void older $17.99 2,529 92% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) Spider Nest Games
Ooblets older $29.99 1,388 91% 42k $1.2M (exactly $1,248,784) Glumberland
Last Evil older $9.99 3,559 94% 107k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,632) Flametorch
Foretales older $19.99 779 87% 23k $467k (exactly $467,166) Alkemi
Stray Path $14.99 918 73% 28k $413k (exactly $412,825) zidong games
Shin chan: Me and the Professor on Summer Vacation The Endless Seven-Day Journey older $29.99 455 81% 14k $409k (exactly $409,364) Neos Corporation
The Knight Witch older $19.99 643 72% 19k $386k (exactly $385,607) Super Mega Team
Baten Kaitos I & II HD Remaster older $49.99 250 78% 7.5k $375k (exactly $374,925) logicalbeat Co., Ltd.
Mahokenshi - The Samurai Deckbuilder older $24.99 464 77% 14k $348k (exactly $347,861) Game Source Studio
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse $19.99 340 77% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) EXLIX
Shards of Order $9.99 578 90% 17k $173k (exactly $173,227) Fardust
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Stackmon $13.99 364 75% 11k $153k (exactly $152,771) Riftpoint Entertainment
Stack to Ascension $12.99 331 54% 9.9k $129k (exactly $128,991) Stack to Ascension
Moon Corona · EA $13.99 210 82% 6.3k $88k (exactly $88,137) 不倒龙工作室, Budaolong Studio
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.