Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Metroidvania?

Exploration + Metroidvania

Of 303 developers who shipped an Exploration Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 905 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×15 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×1182 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 905 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 905 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 303
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $4.6k → $33k → $13k → $7.5k → $5.4k → $11k (still earning) → $3.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 303
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,679)
Median $7.0k (exactly $7,036)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $49,175)
Top 5% $561k (exactly $561,319)
Developers, 2 yr 303
Released games 907
Announced 905
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Metroidvania; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 414,443 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $7.0k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 7 in 10 of the 146 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 905 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
ANIMAL WELL older $24.99 22,814 95% 684k $17M (exactly $17,103,656) Billy Basso
TUNIC older $29.99 16,692 91% 501k $15M (exactly $15,017,792) TUNIC Team
Death's Door older $19.99 19,330 93% 580k $12M (exactly $11,592,201) Acid Nerve
Hyper Light Drifter older $19.99 15,548 93% 466k $9.3M (exactly $9,324,136) Heart Machine
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Revenge of the Savage Planet $29.99 2,845 86% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,559,646) Raccoon Logic Studios Inc.
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
Constance $19.99 2,822 82% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,353) Blue Backpack
GRIME II $27.99 1,892 86% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,588,712) Clover Bite
Kotama and Academy Citadel $19.99 2,542 80% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) Atomstring Games
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
Pipistrello and the Cursed Yoyo $19.99 1,993 97% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,195,202) Pocket Trap

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.