Do I ship it?

GamesSkateboardingSkateboarding + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Skateboarding game?

Skateboarding + Exploration

Only 15 developers shipped an Exploration Skateboarding game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ScooterFlow, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.2k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3796 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 28 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Skateboarding + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $16k → $718k
Outcomes for Skateboarding + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $4.8k (exactly $4,794)
Median $8.2k (exactly $8,234)
Top 25% $718k (exactly $717,841)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 32
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Skateboarding
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Skateboarding, Exploration
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 8,708 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.8k, median $8.2k, 1 in 4 over $710k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.8k. 6 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Skateboarding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 21 announced
  2. + 3D PlatformerPoor odds13 devs · median $8.6k · 19 announced
  3. + SportsPoor odds24 devs · median $8.2k · 39 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds20 devs · median $8.1k · 18 announced
  5. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $6.7k · 56 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds19 devs · median $6.7k · 40 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds19 devs · median $4.8k · 28 announced
  8. + PlatformerPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced
  9. + ParkourPoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 20 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds9 devs · median $2.9k · 14 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds24 devs · median $719 · 40 announced
  12. + Action-AdventureDead11 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced

All 14 pairs on the Skateboarding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Session: Skate Sim older $39.99 13,460 83% 404k $16M (exactly $16,147,962) crea-ture Studios Inc.
ScooterFlow $19.99 3,975 95% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,383,808) UncannyKiwi Limited
Sword of the Sea $29.99 1,638 89% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,473,709) Giant Squid
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
Driftwood $19.99 1,197 92% 36k $718k (exactly $717,841) Stoked Sloth Interactive
SkateBIRD older $19.99 637 85% 19k $382k (exactly $382,009) Glass Bottom Games
Star Overdrive $34.99 141 87% 4.2k $148k (exactly $148,008) Caracal Games
VR Skater older $19.99 222 86% 6.7k $133k (exactly $133,133) DEFICIT Games
Seafrog $14.99 35 100% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) OhMyMe Games
Ollie-Oop $12.99 24 91% 720 $9.4k (exactly $9,353) Almost Playable Games
cheapskate · EA $4.99 55 98% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Simple Dev Studio
Bambas! $14.99 15 86% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) DevilishGames
hoptix $7.99 23 100% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) Cat Burglar Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.