Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Cooking game?

Exploration + Cooking

Of 120 developers who shipped an Exploration Cooking game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 317 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×10 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1585 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 317 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 317 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 120
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $11k → $28k → $42k → $3.0k → $4.8k → $2.9k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 120
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,794)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $47,218)
Top 5% $753k (exactly $753,049)
Developers, 2 yr 120
Released games 270
Announced 317
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Cooking; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Crafting, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 28,701 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 317 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Disney Dreamlight Valley 2023 · $26M Black Desert 2017 · $19M Sun Haven 2023 · $17M Hello Kitty Island Adventure 2025 · $12M Starsand Island 2026 · $7.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Black Desert older $9.99 63,052 75% 1.9M $19M (exactly $18,896,684) Pearl Abyss
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
Starsand Island $39.99 5,898 76% 177k $7.1M (exactly $7,075,831) Seed Sparkle Lab
Dungeon Munchies older $19.99 6,596 97% 198k $4.0M (exactly $3,955,621) maJAJa
Ale & Tale Tavern older $14.99 8,692 88% 261k $3.9M (exactly $3,908,792) Scienart Games
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
REKA · EA older $19.99 2,989 82% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,792,503) Emberstorm Entertainment
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Winter Burrow $19.99 2,838 89% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,701,949) Pine Creek Games
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games
Shin chan: Shiro and the Coal Town $29.99 837 95% 25k $753k (exactly $753,049) h.a.n.d., Inc.
Fruitbus $24.99 962 86% 29k $721k (exactly $721,211) Krillbite Studio
Scale the Depths $9.99 1,881 88% 56k $564k (exactly $563,736) Glass Gecko Games
To Pixelia $14.99 1,194 73% 36k $537k (exactly $536,942) Pixeduo Studios
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.