Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Job Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Job Simulator?

Exploration + Job Simulator

Of 31 developers who shipped an Exploration Job Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $23k, ×49 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×1032 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 56 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 49.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 56 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Job Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $234k → $187k → $23k → $74k → $4.0k → $28k (still earning) → $490k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Job Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $2.9k (exactly $2,875)
Median $23k (exactly $23,384)
Top 25% $119k (exactly $118,721)
Top 5% $490k (exactly $490,243)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 52
Announced 56
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Job Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Job Simulator; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Life Sim, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Family Friendly, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 8,668 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.9k, median $23k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.9k. 5 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Taxi Life: A City Driving Simulator older $29.99 4,414 62% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,971,276) Simteract
Loddlenaut older $19.99 3,832 98% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,298,050) Moon Lagoon
Go-Go Town! $27.99 2,476 93% 74k $2.1M (exactly $2,079,097) Prideful Sloth
Passpartout 2: The Lost Artist older $24.99 1,234 95% 37k $925k (exactly $925,130) Flamebait Games
TramSim Munich - The Tram Simulator older $34.99 543 67% 16k $570k (exactly $569,987) ViewApp
Chop Chop Inc. $12.99 1,258 90% 38k $490k (exactly $490,243) NullRef Entertainment
Fuel Harvest Together $13.99 879 69% 26k $369k (exactly $368,916) Say2Sun
A Game About Chopping Trees $7.99 1,083 85% 32k $260k (exactly $259,595) Space Raccoon Game Studio
Bear's Restaurant older $12.99 649 94% 19k $253k (exactly $252,915) Odencat
Final Profit: A Shop RPG older $14.99 520 95% 16k $234k (exactly $233,844) Brent Arnold
Worming from Home $7.99 793 98% 24k $190k (exactly $190,082) Zach Northrop, Mason Sabharwal
Catto's Post Office $4.99 1,203 97% 36k $180k (exactly $180,089) In Shambles Studio
Snow Plowing Simulator $15.99 281 64% 8.4k $135k (exactly $134,796) FreeMind S.A.
Map Map - A Game About Maps $14.99 264 91% 7.9k $119k (exactly $118,721) Pipapo Games
Critter Café $9.99 266 72% 8.0k $80k (exactly $79,720) Sumo Digital
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.