Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Tower Defense?

Exploration + Tower Defense

Of 80 developers who shipped an Exploration Tower Defense in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 187 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.9k, ×21 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1578 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 187 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 187 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $3.1k → $1.9k → $15k → $12k → $1.9k → $14k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $9.9k (exactly $9,897)
Top 25% $114k (exactly $114,485)
Top 5% $749k (exactly $749,486)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 190
Announced 187
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Tower Defense; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Strategy, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 14,407 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $9.9k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 187 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M The Riftbreaker 2021 · $20M Dome Keeper 2022 · $10M Kingdom: New Lands 2016 · $4.6M Kingdom Rush Origins - Tower Defense 2018 · $3.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Dome Keeper older $17.99 18,976 92% 569k $10M (exactly $10,241,347) Bippinbits
Kingdom: New Lands older $14.99 10,152 86% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,565,354) Noio
Kingdom Rush Origins - Tower Defense older $14.99 7,466 95% 224k $3.4M (exactly $3,357,460) Ironhide Game Studio
Wall World older $6.99 11,353 90% 341k $2.4M (exactly $2,380,724) Alawar
Cliff Empire older $17.99 4,194 87% 126k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,502) Lion's Shade
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
DarkSwitch $34.99 714 77% 21k $749k (exactly $749,486) Cyber Temple
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Wall World 2 $11.99 1,749 73% 52k $629k (exactly $629,115) Alawar
Tower Factory · EA $14.99 1,220 89% 37k $549k (exactly $548,634) Gius Caminiti
Survival Machine $19.99 692 69% 21k $415k (exactly $414,992) Grape Pickers
Machine Mind $19.99 567 71% 17k $340k (exactly $340,030) Chudo-Yudo Games
CleanFall · EA $19.99 492 92% 15k $295k (exactly $295,052) Humanyoyo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.