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Should I ship an Exploration Naval Combat game?
Naval Combat + Exploration
Of 40 developers who shipped an Exploration Naval Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 95 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $15k, ×23 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×68614 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 95 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.1k (exactly $1,079) |
|---|---|
| Median | $15k (exactly $14,564) |
| Top 25% | $210k (exactly $209,943) |
| Top 5% | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 40 |
| Released games | 88 |
| Announced | 95 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $13.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Naval Combat
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Naval Combat, Exploration; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Sailing, Action
- Price point
- $13.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 102,986 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 95 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + World War IIFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + RTSPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M 
Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M 
ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M 
Soulmask 2026 · $17M 
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii 2025 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced | $59.99 | 26,652 81% | 800k | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) | Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania) | |
| | Windrose | · EA | $29.99 | 47,893 86% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) | Kraken Express |
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | Soulmask | $29.99 | 18,445 76% | 553k | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) | CampFire Studio | |
| | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
 | Skull and Bones | older | $29.99 | 4,650 65% | 140k | $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) | Ubisoft Singapore |
 | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
 | Sailing Era | older | $24.99 | 4,565 78% | 137k | $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) | GY Games |
 | Sid Meier's Pirates! | older | $9.99 | 6,198 94% | 186k | $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) | Firaxis Games |
 | Abandon Ship | older | $24.99 | 1,151 71% | 35k | $863k (exactly $862,905) | Fireblade Software |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | Forgotten Seas | $24.99 | 475 75% | 14k | $356k (exactly $356,108) | Pangea Game Studios | |
 | Darkwater | $9.99 | 989 77% | 30k | $296k (exactly $296,403) | Targon Studios | |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
 | Windward Horizon | $19.99 | 401 79% | 12k | $240k (exactly $240,480) | Tasharen Entertainment Inc. | |
 | DAVY x JONES | · EA | $17.99 | 389 82% | 12k | $210k (exactly $209,943) | PARASIGHT |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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