Do I ship it?

GamesTransportationTransportation + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Transportation game?

Transportation + Exploration

Of 73 developers who shipped an Exploration Transportation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 109 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.3M, ×14904 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 109 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 109 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Transportation + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $3.8k → $5.8k → $959 → $135k → $7.2k → $19k (still earning) → $7.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Transportation + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Top 25% $197k (exactly $196,798)
Top 5% $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 163
Announced 109
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Transportation, Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Open World, Driving
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 72,151 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $190k, 1 in 20 over $9.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 109 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Transportation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationFair19 devs · median $7.2k · 24 announced
  2. + PvPFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + 3D PlatformerFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  4. + RacingFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  5. + Action-AdventureFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  6. + LogicFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  7. + ArcadeFair37 devs · median $839 · 32 announced
  8. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $747 · 20 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $43k · 17 announced
  12. + Life SimPoor odds24 devs · median $27k · 48 announced

All 53 pairs on the Transportation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
The Bus $39.99 7,831 73% 235k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,851) TML-Studios
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Motor Town: Behind The Wheel · EA older $19.99 8,971 93% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,379,909) P3 Games
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Seafarer: The Ship Sim · EA $34.99 1,921 64% 58k $2.0M (exactly $2,016,474) astragon Development
The Legend of Khiimori · EA $29.99 1,929 82% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,735,521) Aesir Interactive, NightinGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.