Do I ship it?

Games › Exploration › Exploration + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Deckbuilding?

Exploration + Deckbuilding

Of 90 developers who shipped an Exploration Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 175 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $690; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×519 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 175 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 175 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 90
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $64k → $17k → $17k → $14k → $8.1k → $8.8k → $690 (still earning) → $8.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 90
Bottom 30% $690 (exactly $690)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,513)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,183)
Top 5% $247k (exactly $246,566)
Developers, 2 yr 90
Released games 169
Announced 175
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 17,874 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $690, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $690. 7 in 10 of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 175 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M Lost in Random™ 2021 · $4.0M BOOK OF HOURS 2023 · $3.1M Matchmaking Inc. 2025 · $1.6M Vault of the Void 2022 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Lost in Random™ older $29.99 4,479 88% 134k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,756) Zoink, Thunderful
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
Vault of the Void older $17.99 2,529 92% 76k $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) Spider Nest Games
Ooblets older $29.99 1,388 91% 42k $1.2M (exactly $1,248,784) Glumberland
Last Evil older $9.99 3,559 94% 107k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,632) Flametorch
Ravenbound older $29.99 770 53% 23k $693k (exactly $692,769) Systemic Reaction™
Fretless - The Wrath of Riffson $14.99 1,399 98% 42k $629k (exactly $629,130) Ritual Studios
The Knight Witch older $19.99 643 72% 19k $386k (exactly $385,607) Super Mega Team
Ways of Alchemy $17.99 674 74% 20k $364k (exactly $363,758) RocketBrush Games
9th Dawn Remake $15.99 514 86% 15k $247k (exactly $246,566) Valorware
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
Roots Devour $14.99 479 68% 14k $215k (exactly $215,406) Rewinding Games
Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse $19.99 340 77% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) EXLIX
Shards of Order $9.99 578 90% 17k $173k (exactly $173,227) Fardust
Winnie's Hole · EA $15.99 326 94% 9.8k $156k (exactly $156,382) Twice Different

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.