Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Exploration

Of 146 developers who shipped an Exploration Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 354 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $58k, ×43 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $12k; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×12320 the market median. Revenue is up 75% on the market; 354 games are announced against 82 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 42.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 75% on the market, 354 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 146
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $40k → $11k → $24k → $255k → $38k → $72k → $139k (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 146
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $11,301)
Median $58k (exactly $57,571)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,088,456)
Top 5% $17M (exactly $16,594,966)
Developers, 2 yr 146
Released games 429
Announced 354
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 75% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Exploration; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Base Building, Open World
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,150,676 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $12k, median $58k, 1 in 4 over $1.0M, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $12k. 4 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 354 games are announced against 82 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Valheim 2026 · $418M Terraria 2011 · $372M Palworld 2026 · $371M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
ASTRONEER older $29.99 118,844 91% 3.6M $107M (exactly $106,923,947) System Era Softworks
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Necesse $14.99 24,425 93% 733k $11M (exactly $10,983,922) Fair Games ApS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.