Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade game?

Arcade

Of 5,593 developers who shipped an Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6,835 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 3,467 developers shipped in the last year and 6,835 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 6,835 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5,593
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $719 → $628 → $599 → $450 → $539 → $449 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5,593
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $418 (exactly $418)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $89,349)
Developers, 2 yr 5,593
Released games 19,069
Announced 6,835
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 399,615 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $420, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $89k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 3,016 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6,835 games are announced against 3,467 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Arcade

271 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Spectacle fighter + Arcade Poor odds $897 89 devs
  2. Farming Sim + Arcade Poor odds $891 28 devs
  3. Arcade + Demons Poor odds $838 126 devs
  4. Strategy RPG + Arcade Poor odds $779 34 devs
  5. Tactical RPG + Arcade Poor odds $779 19 devs
  6. Dungeon Crawler + Arcade Poor odds $750 138 devs
  7. On-Rails Shooter + Arcade Poor odds $750 80 devs
  8. Action Roguelike + Arcade Poor odds $748 801 devs
  9. Hack and Slash + Arcade Poor odds $748 281 devs
  10. Beat 'em up + Arcade Poor odds $748 230 devs
  11. Sandbox + Arcade Poor odds $748 186 devs
  12. Crafting + Arcade Poor odds $748 121 devs
  13. Arcade + Cooking Poor odds $748 94 devs
  14. Class-Based + Arcade Poor odds $748 66 devs
  15. Boss Rush + Arcade Poor odds $748 32 devs
  16. Sports + Arcade Poor odds $719 500 devs
  17. Arcade + Twin Stick Shooter Poor odds $719 238 devs
  18. 6DOF + Arcade Poor odds $719 46 devs
  19. Basketball + Arcade Poor odds $719 31 devs
  20. Motorbike + Arcade Poor odds $719 26 devs
  21. Skateboarding + Arcade Poor odds $719 24 devs
  22. Cycling + Arcade Poor odds $719 13 devs
  23. Arcade + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $718 213 devs
  24. Offroad + Arcade Poor odds $718 45 devs
  25. Base Building + Arcade Poor odds $716 68 devs
  26. Immersive Sim + Arcade Poor odds $657 196 devs
  27. Open World + Arcade Poor odds $657 171 devs
  28. Boomer Shooter + Arcade Poor odds $657 119 devs
  29. Wargame + Arcade Poor odds $657 54 devs
  30. PvP + Arcade Poor odds $629 723 devs
  31. Building + Arcade Poor odds $629 138 devs
  32. Gun Customization + Arcade Poor odds $628 82 devs
  33. Arcade + Shop Keeper Poor odds $628 47 devs
  34. Co-op Campaign + Arcade Poor odds $600 63 devs
  35. Arcade + Pirates Poor odds $600 25 devs
  36. Arcade + Conspiracy Poor odds $600 22 devs
  37. Exploration + Arcade Poor odds $599 560 devs
  38. Character Customization + Arcade Poor odds $599 505 devs
  39. FPS + Arcade Poor odds $599 269 devs
  40. Arcade + Perma Death Poor odds $599 216 devs
  41. Destruction + Arcade Poor odds $599 191 devs
  42. Vehicular Combat + Arcade Poor odds $599 182 devs
  43. Swordplay + Arcade Poor odds $599 51 devs
  44. Arcade + Mars Poor odds $599 14 devs
  45. Arcade + Noir Poor odds $598 38 devs
  46. Sailing + Arcade Poor odds $598 21 devs
  47. Submarine + Arcade Poor odds $598 18 devs
  48. Arcade + Naval Poor odds $598 17 devs
  49. Racing + Arcade Poor odds $540 555 devs
  50. Arcade + Fantasy Poor odds $539 683 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M Need for Speed™ Heat 2020 · $271M Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M Mortal Kombat 11 2019 · $131M Need for Speed™ Unbound 2022 · $105M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Mortal Kombat 11 older $49.99 87,021 88% 2.6M $131M (exactly $130,505,394) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC, Shiver
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
Geometry Dash older $4.99 595,606 93% 18M $89M (exactly $89,162,218) RobTop Games
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN older $59.99 46,235 87% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,209,130) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Megabonk $9.99 100,202 94% 3.0M $30M (exactly $30,030,539) vedinad
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds $69.99 11,479 93% 344k $24M (exactly $24,102,456) Sonic Team
Tokyo Xtreme Racer $49.99 15,284 93% 459k $23M (exactly $22,921,415) Genki Co., Ltd.
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.