Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Arcade

Of 196 developers who shipped an Arcade Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 230 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $660, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 230 games are announced against 108 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 40% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 230 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 196
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $330 → $719 → $719 → $2.1k → $449 → $657 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 196
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $657 (exactly $657)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 5% $162k (exactly $161,584)
Developers, 2 yr 196
Released games 523
Announced 230
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Driving
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 15,121 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $660, 1 in 4 over $4.9k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 121 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 230 games are announced against 108 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Internet Cafe Simulator 2 older $19.99 12,299 74% 369k $7.4M (exactly $7,375,710) Cheesecake Dev
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Call of the Wild: The Angler™ older $29.99 6,122 63% 184k $5.5M (exactly $5,507,963) Expansive Worlds
Super Mega Baseball 3 older $44.99 1,832 92% 55k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,650) Metalhead Software Inc.
KartKraft™ older $24.99 2,987 73% 90k $2.2M (exactly $2,239,354) Motorsport Games
Seafarer: The Ship Sim · EA $34.99 1,921 64% 58k $2.0M (exactly $2,016,474) astragon Development
RUNNING TRAIN | 走ル列車! · EA $19.99 1,594 97% 48k $956k (exactly $955,922) Novatetsu Games
Kayak VR: Mirage older $22.99 1,006 82% 30k $694k (exactly $693,838) Better Than Life
Legend Bowl older $24.99 910 87% 27k $682k (exactly $682,227) Super Pixel Games
Pure Rock Crawling $14.99 1,291 83% 39k $581k (exactly $580,563) Maciej Kuzianik
A Bumpy Ride $14.99 569 97% 17k $256k (exactly $255,879) Cosmoporium Games
LANESPLIT $17.99 381 77% 11k $206k (exactly $205,626) FunkyMouse
Tower Networking Inc. · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Pocosia Studios
IT Specialist Simulator · EA $13.99 433 74% 13k $182k (exactly $181,730) Pixel Team RED
ReCharge RC: High Voltage · EA $13.99 393 95% 12k $165k (exactly $164,942) Hondune Games
Gaming Cafe Simulator $13.99 385 83% 12k $162k (exactly $161,584) Prapancha Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.