Do I ship it?

GamesSailingSailing + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Sailing game?

Sailing + Arcade

Of 21 developers who shipped an Arcade Sailing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $48k, ×78 the market median. Revenue is up 980% on the market; 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 980% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sailing + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $2.1k → $598 → $299 → $120 → $43k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sailing + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 5% $49k (exactly $48,952)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 66
Announced 33
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 980% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Sailing, Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Relaxing, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 2,613 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $48k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sailing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + UnderwaterFair24 devs · median $3.9k · 30 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds16 devs · median $69k · 42 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds22 devs · median $45k · 73 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $38k · 40 announced
  7. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $27k · 40 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds26 devs · median $17k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds48 devs · median $15k · 119 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 25 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $8.5k · 55 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds24 devs · median $6.6k · 63 announced

All 47 pairs on the Sailing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cat Goes Fishing older $6.99 15,431 94% 463k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,881) Cat5Games
Seafarer: The Ship Sim · EA $34.99 1,921 64% 58k $2.0M (exactly $2,016,474) astragon Development
Corsairs Legacy - Pirate Action RPG & Sea Battles · EA older $19.99 1,094 74% 33k $656k (exactly $656,072) Mauris, Tech-5 UG
Shipped older $9.99 584 96% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) Majorariatto
Furious Seas older $19.99 196 71% 5.9k $118k (exactly $117,541) Future Immersive
Trash Sailors: Co-Op Trash Raft Simulator older $19.99 187 67% 5.6k $112k (exactly $112,144) fluckyMachine
Drakkar Crew older $14.99 155 80% 4.7k $70k (exactly $69,704) SiBear Games
Profit Sea Incremental $4.99 327 79% 9.8k $49k (exactly $48,952) Monkey Cube
Nautical Survival $7.99 179 97% 5.4k $43k (exactly $42,906) Idan Rooze
Curse of Pirates $9.99 121 80% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Funky Parrot
Fish & Hike · EA $6.99 16 93% 480 $3.4k (exactly $3,355) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Speedboat Simulator · EA $8.99 10 70% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Hard Shark Games
Pizza Oof! · EA $5.99 9 100% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Newmatic Co., Ltd.
Idle Sailor $2.99 18 83% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) PcZ Games
Cool Game Pack $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) COOL 2 Interactive
The Fishercat $4.99 6 83% 180 $898 (exactly $898) MACARON STUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.