Do I ship it?

GamesCyclingCycling + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Cycling game?

Cycling + Arcade

Only 13 developers shipped an Arcade Cycling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Streetdog BMX, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×234 the market median. Revenue is up 150% on the market; 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 150% on the market, 16 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cycling + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $3.9k → $1.2k → $2.4k → $449 → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cycling + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 5% $147k (exactly $146,941)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 43
Announced 16
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cycling
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Cycling, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 298 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cycling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 17 announced
  2. + BMXFair9 devs · median $2.1k · 10 announced
  3. + AdventurePoor odds14 devs · median $6.1k · 20 announced
  4. + BikesPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  5. + ActionPoor odds14 devs · median $2.4k · 17 announced
  6. + RacingPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 18 announced
  7. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.1k · 13 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $449 · 29 announced
  9. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $239 · 17 announced

All 9 pairs on the Cycling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
Pro Cycling Manager 2024 older $39.99 340 81% 10k $408k (exactly $407,898) Cyanide Studio
Streetdog BMX $24.99 196 94% 5.9k $147k (exactly $146,941) Yeah Us! Games
STREET UNi X older $19.99 78 96% 2.3k $47k (exactly $46,777) daffodil & friends
Draw Rider older $9.99 130 70% 3.9k $39k (exactly $38,961) 17Studio
All-In-One Summer Sports VR · EA older $19.99 45 84% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Appnori Inc.
Shred! Remastered older $4.99 100 59% 3.0k $15k (exactly $14,970) ASBO Interactive
Magnytour older $14.99 22 86% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) Pandaroo Interactive
BeachRun older $24.99 11 100% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Gamesforgames
Watch Your Ride - Bicycle Game older $7.99 31 80% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Tiny Magicians
Bananitro $3.99 47 100% 1.4k $5.6k (exactly $5,626) Inventario
Cycling Champion · EA $8.99 13 84% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) RaulM
Accolade Sports Collection (QUByte Classics) $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) QUByte Interactive
pedalverse $4.99 14 42% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) FuristicStudio
Ride It! $2.80 12 100% 360 $1.0k (exactly $1,008) dpm, Revi, GatoHolguera
Mini Games Retro 90s $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Ewerton José Wantroba
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow
Smoots Summer Games II $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Kaneda Games
Chained Bikes $1.99 4 100% 120 $239 (exactly $239) Enceladus Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.