Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Arcade

Of 34 developers who shipped an Arcade Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $780, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $5.8M, ×9271 the market median. Revenue is up 1625% on the market; 55 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 1625% on the market, 55 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $90 → $11k → $30 → $479 → $299 → $807 → $5.1k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $779 (exactly $779)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,807)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 91
Announced 55
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1625% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Character Customization
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 26,299 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $780, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward older $19.99 3,808 81% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,283,658) Lazy Bear Games
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Machine Mind $19.99 567 71% 17k $340k (exactly $340,030) Chudo-Yudo Games
Boat Crew · EA older $24.99 431 89% 13k $323k (exactly $323,121) Tabbing Tabby
Roundguard older $19.99 449 80% 13k $269k (exactly $269,265) Wonderbelly Games
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
Escort Simulator 2 older $19.99 149 68% 4.5k $89k (exactly $89,355) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Swords and Sandals 3 Redux $9.99 233 87% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Whiskeybarrel Studios
Snap the Cat $6.99 148 93% 4.4k $31k (exactly $31,036) KORO.GAMES
Bronana $4.99 129 68% 3.9k $19k (exactly $19,311) busy bear
Uchi No Heya! $9.99 39 100% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) James West
Punch to Glory $6.99 42 92% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Musa GUNGOR
Luna Hollow - Dream Eater Defense $5.99 32 53% 960 $5.8k (exactly $5,750) CHARON, STUDIO CHARON, 月桂樹冠

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.