Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Arcade game?

Arcade + Perma Death

Of 216 developers who shipped a Perma Death Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 241 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $30k, ×65 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 241 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 241 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 216
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $2.5k → $599 → $1.0k → $779 → $599 → $267 (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 216
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,352)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $30,838)
Developers, 2 yr 216
Released games 638
Announced 241
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 9,897 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.3k, 1 in 20 over $30k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 111 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 241 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crab Champions 2023 · EA · $8.0M Spelunky 2013 · $6.6M Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite 2026 · $2.1M Ziggurat 2014 · $1.3M Heretic's Fork 2023 · $928k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
Spelunky older $14.99 14,676 92% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Mossmouth
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Ziggurat older $14.99 2,835 86% 85k $1.3M (exactly $1,274,900) Milkstone Studios
Heretic's Fork older $9.99 3,097 85% 93k $928k (exactly $928,171) 9FingerGames
ALTF4 older $2.99 9,452 80% 284k $848k (exactly $847,844) PUMPKIM
Sky Rogue older $19.99 1,059 92% 32k $635k (exactly $635,082) Fractal Phase
Race The Sun older $9.99 1,974 93% 59k $592k (exactly $591,608) Flippfly LLC
Windowkill older $4.99 3,390 95% 102k $507k (exactly $507,483) torcado
Spell Disk older $14.99 965 89% 29k $434k (exactly $433,960) Sunpeak Games
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Starlight Revolver · EA $12.99 404 54% 12k $157k (exactly $157,439) Pahdo Labs
Bendy: Lone Wolf $19.99 259 77% 7.8k $155k (exactly $155,322) Joey Drew Studios
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
Plinbo: Roguelike Plinko $6.99 379 67% 11k $79k (exactly $79,476) Raphus & Co.
Sculplings $10.99 179 99% 5.4k $59k (exactly $59,016) Conor Garity, Liam Kerrigan
Lucky Shot $12.99 147 97% 4.4k $57k (exactly $57,286) Deliver Games
Relic Dudes $4.99 264 87% 7.9k $40k (exactly $39,521) Achenar Studios, danilomacb
ploink $12.99 91 96% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Pyrocreep

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.