Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shop Keeper Arcade game?

Arcade + Shop Keeper

Of 47 developers who shipped a Shop Keeper Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $94k, ×198 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 70 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 70 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $2.7k → $6.7k → $179 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $628 (exactly $628)
Top 25% $7.3k (exactly $7,253)
Top 5% $94k (exactly $94,153)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 52
Announced 70
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Shop Keeper; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 4,319 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $630, 1 in 4 over $7.2k, 1 in 20 over $94k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Chef's Shift $12.99 1,948 97% 58k $759k (exactly $759,136) Panitia GameDev
Budgie's Bug Shop $5.99 1,016 96% 30k $183k (exactly $182,575) Moon Lagoon
Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game $19.99 157 85% 4.7k $94k (exactly $94,153) TREBUCHET
Happy Endings $6.99 429 86% 13k $90k (exactly $89,961) Late Night Studios
Tech Store Simulator $9.99 103 61% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) Astrasoft
Just Keep Fishing $6.99 140 84% 4.2k $29k (exactly $29,358) Set Sail Games
Parcel Delivery Simulator $6.99 114 61% 3.4k $24k (exactly $23,906) Digital Melody
I Sell Lemonade $13.99 56 67% 1.7k $24k (exactly $23,503) EBS, Picklebyte
Luckyest $2.99 252 78% 7.6k $23k (exactly $22,604) Mobmonks
Supurr Cat Cafe: Sandwich Rush $5.99 104 100% 3.1k $19k (exactly $18,689) 2 Nerdy Nerds

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.