Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Sandbox?

Sandbox + Arcade

Of 186 developers who shipped an Arcade Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 262 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1212 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 262 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 262 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 186
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $807 → $5.9k → $719 → $2.5k → $2.7k → $390 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 186
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $8.2k (exactly $8,234)
Top 5% $761k (exactly $761,019)
Developers, 2 yr 186
Released games 521
Announced 262
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Physics, Action
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 136,208 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $8.2k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 99 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 262 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M The Crew™ 2 2018 · $78M The Crew Motorfest 2024 · $51M CarX Drift Racing Online 2017 · $42M Wreckfest 2018 · $28M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
The Crew Motorfest older $69.99 24,230 78% 727k $51M (exactly $50,875,731) Ubisoft Ivory Tower
CarX Drift Racing Online older $16.99 82,720 95% 2.5M $42M (exactly $42,162,384) CarX Technologies, LLC
Wreckfest older $29.99 31,390 87% 942k $28M (exactly $28,241,583) Bugbear
Need for Speed™ Payback older $29.99 27,424 85% 823k $25M (exactly $24,673,373) Ghost Games
Paint the Town Red older $19.99 29,141 96% 874k $17M (exactly $17,475,858) South East Games
Goat Simulator older $9.99 54,740 90% 1.6M $16M (exactly $16,405,578) Coffee Stain Studios
CarX Street older $19.99 17,600 72% 528k $11M (exactly $10,554,720) CarX Technologies, LLC
Tower Unite $19.99 16,237 89% 487k $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) PixelTail Games
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
The Coin Game $19.99 5,647 92% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) devotid
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Everything is Crab: The Animal Evolution Roguelite $9.99 6,876 76% 206k $2.1M (exactly $2,060,737) Odd Dreams Digital
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
Global Rescue · EA $24.99 1,864 86% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,441) PeDePe GbR
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
Brickadia · EA $19.99 1,269 81% 38k $761k (exactly $761,019) Brickadia, LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.