Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Arcade game?

Crafting + Arcade

Of 121 developers who shipped a Crafting Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 200 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×541 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 200 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 200 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 121
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $1.2k → $299 → $898 → $897 → $718 → $1.8k (still earning) → $208 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 121
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 5% $340k (exactly $340,030)
Developers, 2 yr 121
Released games 285
Announced 200
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 58,650 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $750, 1 in 4 over $4.9k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 200 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Soulstone Survivors 2025 · $12M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M Wild Woods 2024 · EA · $785k Mercenary Kings: Reloaded Edition 2014 · $715k Robot Roller-Derby Disco Dodgeball 2015 · $677k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Wild Woods · EA $14.99 1,746 78% 52k $785k (exactly $785,176) Octofox Games
Mercenary Kings: Reloaded Edition older $19.99 1,192 74% 36k $715k (exactly $714,842) Tribute Games Inc.
Robot Roller-Derby Disco Dodgeball older $9.99 2,258 91% 68k $677k (exactly $676,723) Erik Asmussen
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Hamster Hunter older $4.99 3,470 95% 104k $519k (exactly $519,459) Hamuno
Grind Survivors $12.99 1,332 69% 40k $519k (exactly $519,080) Pushka Studios
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Machine Mind $19.99 567 71% 17k $340k (exactly $340,030) Chudo-Yudo Games
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
Camping Simulator: The Squad $4.99 881 57% 26k $132k (exactly $131,886) CubeCube Sports Ltd.
Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game $19.99 157 85% 4.7k $94k (exactly $94,153) TREBUCHET

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.