Games › Open World › Open World + Arcade
Should I ship an Arcade Open World game?
Open World + Arcade
Of 171 developers who shipped an Arcade Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 253 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $660, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210. 253 games are announced against 99 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 50% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $210 (exactly $210) |
|---|---|
| Median | $657 (exactly $657) |
| Top 25% | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) |
| Top 5% | $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 171 |
| Released games | 584 |
| Announced | 253 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Arcade
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Exploration
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 179,675 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 253 games are announced against 99 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M 
Need for Speed™ Heat 2020 · $271M 
Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M 
Need for Speed™ Unbound 2022 · $105M 
The Crew™ 2 2018 · $78M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
| | Need for Speed™ Heat | older | $69.99 | 128,933 84% | 3.9M | $271M (exactly $270,720,620) | Ghost Games |
| | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
| | Need for Speed™ Unbound | older | $69.99 | 49,862 61% | 1.5M | $105M (exactly $104,695,241) | Criterion Games |
| | The Crew™ 2 | older | $29.99 | 86,533 78% | 2.6M | $78M (exactly $77,853,740) | Ivory Tower |
 | Street Fighter™ 6 | older | $39.99 | 49,952 81% | 1.5M | $60M (exactly $59,927,414) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | The Crew Motorfest | older | $69.99 | 24,230 78% | 727k | $51M (exactly $50,875,731) | Ubisoft Ivory Tower |
 | CarX Drift Racing Online | older | $16.99 | 82,720 95% | 2.5M | $42M (exactly $42,162,384) | CarX Technologies, LLC |
 | Wreckfest | older | $29.99 | 31,390 87% | 942k | $28M (exactly $28,241,583) | Bugbear |
 | Need for Speed™ Payback | older | $29.99 | 27,424 85% | 823k | $25M (exactly $24,673,373) | Ghost Games |
 | Tokyo Xtreme Racer | $49.99 | 15,284 93% | 459k | $23M (exactly $22,921,415) | Genki Co., Ltd. | |
 | Tower Unite | $19.99 | 16,237 89% | 487k | $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) | PixelTail Games | |
 | Haste | $19.99 | 12,690 92% | 381k | $7.6M (exactly $7,610,193) | Landfall | |
 | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
 | JDM: Japanese Drift Master | $34.99 | 5,217 75% | 157k | $5.5M (exactly $5,476,285) | Gaming Factory | |
 | Rocksmith® 2014 Edition REMASTERED LEARN & PLAY | $9.99 | 15,615 85% | 468k | $4.7M (exactly $4,679,816) | Ubisoft - San Francisco, Ubisoft - Osaka | |
 | Easy Delivery Co. | $12.99 | 9,538 95% | 286k | $3.7M (exactly $3,716,959) | Sam C | |
 | The Coin Game | $19.99 | 5,647 92% | 169k | $3.4M (exactly $3,386,506) | devotid | |
 | Path of Kung Fu | $14.99 | 4,880 72% | 146k | $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) | 游鲤化龙工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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