Games › Sports › Sports + Arcade
Should I ship an Arcade Sports game?
Sports + Arcade
Of 500 developers who shipped an Arcade Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 562 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×440 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 562 games are announced against 291 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $119 (exactly $119) |
|---|---|
| Median | $719 (exactly $719) |
| Top 25% | $6.0k (exactly $5,992) |
| Top 5% | $276k (exactly $276,208) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 500 |
| Released games | 1,960 |
| Announced | 562 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sports, Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Simulation
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 171,141 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 331 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 562 games are announced against 291 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds
- + CraftingFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + SandboxFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + FMVFair
- + BikesFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + Choices MatterFair
Comparable games
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M 
Need for Speed™ Heat 2020 · $271M 
Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M 
Need for Speed™ Unbound 2022 · $105M 
TEKKEN 7 2017 · $82M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
| | Need for Speed™ Heat | older | $69.99 | 128,933 84% | 3.9M | $271M (exactly $270,720,620) | Ghost Games |
| | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
| | Need for Speed™ Unbound | older | $69.99 | 49,862 61% | 1.5M | $105M (exactly $104,695,241) | Criterion Games |
| | TEKKEN 7 | older | $39.99 | 68,063 83% | 2.0M | $82M (exactly $81,655,181) | BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc. |
 | The Crew™ 2 | older | $29.99 | 86,533 78% | 2.6M | $78M (exactly $77,853,740) | Ivory Tower |
 | The Crew Motorfest | older | $69.99 | 24,230 78% | 727k | $51M (exactly $50,875,731) | Ubisoft Ivory Tower |
 | DJMAX RESPECT V | older | $49.99 | 29,808 88% | 894k | $45M (exactly $44,703,058) | NEOWIZ |
 | CarX Drift Racing Online | older | $16.99 | 82,720 95% | 2.5M | $42M (exactly $42,162,384) | CarX Technologies, LLC |
 | F1® 25 | $49.99 | 25,395 87% | 762k | $38M (exactly $38,084,882) | Codemasters | |
 | REMATCH | $29.99 | 39,905 70% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,902,528) | Sloclap | |
 | JDM: Japanese Drift Master | $34.99 | 5,217 75% | 157k | $5.5M (exactly $5,476,285) | Gaming Factory | |
 | UFO 50 | $24.99 | 7,134 94% | 214k | $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) | Mossmouth | |
 | Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 3 + 4 | $49.99 | 1,554 68% | 47k | $2.3M (exactly $2,330,534) | Iron Galaxy Studios | |
 | NASCAR 25 | $39.99 | 1,768 72% | 53k | $2.1M (exactly $2,121,070) | iRacing.com Motorsport Simulations, LLC | |
 | Backyard Baseball | $39.99 | 1,210 80% | 36k | $1.5M (exactly $1,451,637) | Mega Cat Studios | |
 | STORROR Parkour Pro | · EA | $24.99 | 1,605 71% | 48k | $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) | Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios |
 | Cricket 26 - The Official Game of the Ashes | $59.99 | 623 79% | 19k | $1.1M (exactly $1,121,213) | Big Ant Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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