Do I ship it?

Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Arcade

Of 51 developers who shipped an Arcade Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $84k, ×135 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 81 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 81 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $3.6k → $4.8k → $1.5k → $2.9k → $492 → $148 (still earning) → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,198)
Top 5% $85k (exactly $84,572)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 182
Announced 81
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Beat 'em up
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 7,383 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $84k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sifu 2023 · $26M SOULCALIBUR VI 2018 · $18M Hellish Quart 2021 · EA · $4.4M SAMURAI SHODOWN 2021 · $2.5M Path of Kung Fu 2025 · $2.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
SAMURAI SHODOWN older $49.53 1,685 81% 51k $2.5M (exactly $2,503,742) SNK CORPORATION
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Until You Fall older $24.99 2,883 94% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,161,385) Schell Games
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Synth Riders older $24.99 1,336 92% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Kluge Interactive
Mitsurugi Kamui Hikae older $9.99 2,747 81% 82k $823k (exactly $823,276) Zenith Blue
First Cut: Samurai Duel older $8.99 1,986 88% 60k $536k (exactly $535,624) Night Eyes Interactive
IGS Classic Arcade Collection $29.99 94 60% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) IGS(台灣鈊象電子)
AQUAPAZZA: Aquaplus Dream Match $19.99 104 33% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) AQUAPLUS
Lady Death Demonicron $39.99 36 47% 1.1k $43k (exactly $43,189) Art Of Play Interactive
Kraken City $4.99 189 67% 5.7k $28k (exactly $28,293) nStarcube
Spellbound Beauties $6.99 72 83% 2.2k $15k (exactly $15,098) Lunar Kiss Games
Only One $7.99 55 94% 1.7k $13k (exactly $13,184) RebelBinary
Buccaneers Shipshape $12.99 31 87% 930 $12k (exactly $12,081) Merso Entertainment
EvoWars: New Era $8.99 25 72% 750 $6.7k (exactly $6,742) Night Steed Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.