Do I ship it?

GamesMotorbikeMotorbike + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Motorbike game?

Motorbike + Arcade

Of 26 developers who shipped an Arcade Motorbike game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 39 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 50% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 39 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motorbike + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.1M → $3.9k → $239 → $1.6k → $180 → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Motorbike + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 5% $136k (exactly $135,566)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 84
Announced 39
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motorbike
effort 7 / 10 · low · two-wheel physics and rider animation
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motorbike, Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Racing, Sports, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 566 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $720, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motorbike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Action-AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  2. + MotocrossLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  3. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 11 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds31 devs · median $2.3k · 36 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationPoor odds12 devs · median $1.5k · 14 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $1.0k · 23 announced
  7. + BikesPoor odds24 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  8. + AdventurePoor odds12 devs · median $959 · 23 announced
  9. + RacingPoor odds45 devs · median $898 · 55 announced
  10. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $898 · 36 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds33 devs · median $898 · 45 announced
  12. + Automobile SimPoor odds24 devs · median $898 · 24 announced

All 18 pairs on the Motorbike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Crew Motorfest older $69.99 24,230 78% 727k $51M (exactly $50,875,731) Ubisoft Ivory Tower
Road Redemption older $19.99 10,842 83% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,501,947) Redemption Road, Pixel Dash Studios
MX vs ATV Legends older $39.99 4,524 82% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) Rainbow Studios
Burnout™ Paradise Remastered older $19.99 7,348 64% 220k $4.4M (exactly $4,406,596) Stellar Entertainment, Criterion Games
Laika: Aged Through Blood older $19.99 5,938 91% 178k $3.6M (exactly $3,561,019) Brainwash Gang
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
Trials Evolution: Gold Edition older $19.99 2,253 74% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) Redlynx Ltd, Ubisoft Shanghaï
RIDE older $19.99 2,107 80% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,263,568) Milestone S.r.l.
HOT WHEELS UNLEASHED™ 2 - Turbocharged older $39.99 953 77% 29k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,314) Milestone S.r.l.
Monster Energy Supercross - The Official Videogame 6 older $49.99 512 71% 15k $768k (exactly $767,846) Milestone S.r.l.
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
Neptunia Riders VS Dogoos $39.99 113 69% 3.4k $136k (exactly $135,566) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Moto Rush Reborn $12.99 43 97% 1.3k $17k (exactly $16,757) Baltoro Games
VRider SBK™ $29.99 18 55% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Funny Tales
Super Night Riders S1 $9.99 47 95% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) miyu.works
Grind Rush $15.99 9 66% 270 $4.3k (exactly $4,317) AND GEAR
RollCats $19.99 4 100% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Hoglet Interactive
32 SECS $4.99 15 80% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) isTom Games Kft.
Hover REV Hispeed Burst $10.99 5 60% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) JKK_WORKS
Evel Knievel $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Barnstorm Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.