Should I ship a PvP Arcade game?
PvP + Arcade
Of 723 developers who shipped a PvP Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,154 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $630, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 1,154 games are announced against 442 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $629 (exactly $629) |
| Top 25% | $4.0k (exactly $4,042) |
| Top 5% | $162k (exactly $161,935) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 723 |
| Released games | 2,505 |
| Announced | 1,154 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Local Multiplayer, Sports
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 197,519 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 407 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,154 games are announced against 442 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M 
Need for Speed™ Heat 2020 · $271M 
Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M 
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN 2019 · $83M 
Street Fighter™ 6 2023 · $60M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Forza Horizon 5 | older | $59.99 | 260,218 89% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,314,335) | Playground Games |
| | Need for Speed™ Heat | older | $69.99 | 128,933 84% | 3.9M | $271M (exactly $270,720,620) | Ghost Games |
| | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games | |
| | ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN | older | $59.99 | 46,235 87% | 1.4M | $83M (exactly $83,209,130) | Bandai Namco Studios Inc. |
| | Street Fighter™ 6 | older | $39.99 | 49,952 81% | 1.5M | $60M (exactly $59,927,414) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- | older | $39.99 | 47,650 88% | 1.4M | $57M (exactly $57,165,705) | Arc System Works |
 | TEKKEN 8 | older | $39.99 | 46,009 56% | 1.4M | $55M (exactly $55,196,997) | Bandai Namco Studios Inc. |
 | Mortal Kombat 1 | older | $49.99 | 34,197 74% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,285,241) | NetherRealm Studios, QLOC |
 | The Crew Motorfest | older | $69.99 | 24,230 78% | 727k | $51M (exactly $50,875,731) | Ubisoft Ivory Tower |
 | DJMAX RESPECT V | older | $49.99 | 29,808 88% | 894k | $45M (exactly $44,703,058) | NEOWIZ |
 | F1® 25 | $49.99 | 25,395 87% | 762k | $38M (exactly $38,084,882) | Codemasters | |
 | REMATCH | $29.99 | 39,905 70% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,902,528) | Sloclap | |
 | Sonic Racing: CrossWorlds | $69.99 | 11,479 93% | 344k | $24M (exactly $24,102,456) | Sonic Team | |
 | Tower Unite | $19.99 | 16,237 89% | 487k | $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) | PixelTail Games | |
 | THE KING OF FIGHTERS XV | $29.99 | 8,399 83% | 252k | $7.6M (exactly $7,556,580) | SNK CORPORATION | |
 | Invincible VS | $49.99 | 3,031 76% | 91k | $4.5M (exactly $4,545,591) | Quarter Up | |
 | Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game | $29.99 | 3,298 85% | 99k | $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211) | Gameplay Group International | |
 | NASCAR 25 | $39.99 | 1,768 72% | 53k | $2.1M (exactly $2,121,070) | iRacing.com Motorsport Simulations, LLC | |
 | Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival | $49.99 | 1,277 83% | 38k | $1.9M (exactly $1,915,117) | Bandai Namco Amusement Lab Inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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