Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade FPS?

FPS + Arcade

Of 269 developers who shipped an Arcade FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 360 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 360 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 65% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 360 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 269
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $2.4k → $356 → $600 → $599 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 269
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,565)
Top 5% $57k (exactly $57,286)
Developers, 2 yr 269
Released games 1,027
Announced 360
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Arcade; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Boomer Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 54,013 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $57k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 170 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 360 games are announced against 150 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M Paint the Town Red 2021 · $17M A Dance of Fire and Ice 2019 · $14M Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun 2023 · $10M Tower Unite 2025 · $9.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Paint the Town Red older $19.99 29,141 96% 874k $17M (exactly $17,475,858) South East Games
A Dance of Fire and Ice older $5.99 78,688 94% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,140,234) 7th Beat Games
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun older $21.99 15,741 90% 472k $10M (exactly $10,384,338) Auroch Digital
Tower Unite $19.99 16,237 89% 487k $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) PixelTail Games
Call of Juarez: Gunslinger older $14.99 20,869 94% 626k $9.4M (exactly $9,384,789) Techland
MULLET MADJACK older $19.99 8,235 97% 247k $4.9M (exactly $4,938,530) HAMMER95
Primal Carnage: Extinction older $12.99 8,283 84% 248k $3.2M (exactly $3,227,885) Circle Five Studios, Pub Games
Pistol Whip older $29.99 3,586 94% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,226,324) Cloudhead Games Ltd.
I Am Your Beast older $19.99 5,275 97% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,163,417) Strange Scaffold
Brickadia · EA $19.99 1,269 81% 38k $761k (exactly $761,019) Brickadia, LLC
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Viscerafest $19.99 540 87% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) Acid Man Games, Fire Plant Games
Captain Wayne - Vacation Desperation $9.99 1,019 97% 31k $305k (exactly $305,394) Ciaran Games LLC
Guns and Nuns: Storming Hell $9.99 846 88% 25k $254k (exactly $253,546) RM120
Rhythia · EA $3.99 2,029 83% 61k $243k (exactly $242,871) Capo Games
KEEP GAMBLING $7.77 966 74% 29k $225k (exactly $225,175) WIRED FEELINGS
TAMASHIKA $19.99 303 80% 9.1k $182k (exactly $181,709) quicktequila

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.