Do I ship it?

GamesSubmarineSubmarine + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Submarine game?

Submarine + Arcade

Only 18 developers shipped an Arcade Submarine game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sonar Scout, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59; 1 in 20 cleared $4.6k, ×7.4 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 17 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 17 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Submarine + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $4.3k → $1.5k → $598 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Submarine + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 5% $4.7k (exactly $4,672)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 40
Announced 17
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Submarine
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Submarine, Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Physics, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 119 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $4.6k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Submarine with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NatureFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  2. + StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  3. + Naval CombatPoor odds12 devs · median $3.4k · 19 announced
  4. + Co-opPoor odds10 devs · median $3.0k · 21 announced
  5. + HorrorPoor odds18 devs · median $2.8k · 31 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  7. + SimulationPoor odds38 devs · median $2.7k · 49 announced
  8. + Open WorldPoor odds10 devs · median $2.4k · 18 announced
  9. + Sci-fiPoor odds18 devs · median $1.8k · 34 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds19 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  11. + ExplorationPoor odds32 devs · median $959 · 72 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds28 devs · median $958 · 65 announced

All 22 pairs on the Submarine page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Silent Depth 3D Submarine Simulation older $9.99 79 63% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Codeknitters
Sea Bubble older $4.99 57 100% 1.7k $8.5k (exactly $8,533) KST Studio
Riding Seas older $4.99 35 80% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) CatOnTree Studio
Sonar Scout $5.99 26 100% 780 $4.7k (exactly $4,672) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Do… (Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose, Neil Doppelmayr, Christoph Englert, Pontus Liljekvist, Hugo Roque)
The Hookmarine $5.99 24 100% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Elendow
SEARCH ALL - SEASHELLS older $2.99 48 89% 1.4k $4.3k (exactly $4,306) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Speedboat Simulator · EA $8.99 10 70% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Hard Shark Games
Deep Sea Idle: Infinity Abyss $4.99 18 83% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) HIGHKICKSTUDIO
Ocean Pressure older $2.99 26 61% 780 $2.3k (exactly $2,332) Ivan Huliakevich
Chiki-Chiki older $6.99 8 100% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) Saltitude
Jet Rush · EA $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Fresh Bread Games
Scrap Diver $3.99 8 87% 240 $958 (exactly $958) BricchiLab
The Fishercat $4.99 6 83% 180 $898 (exactly $898) MACARON STUDIO
HydroTick: Water Reminder & Aquarium Manager $1.99 12 91% 360 $716 (exactly $716) RetroArc, berreisux
Submarine Survivor $3.99 5 80% 150 $598 (exactly $598) The Bat Flight
Piece of Ship · EA $3.99 5 80% 150 $598 (exactly $598) r-sky

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.