Do I ship it?

GamesSkateboardingSkateboarding + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Skateboarding game?

Skateboarding + Arcade

Of 24 developers who shipped an Arcade Skateboarding game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1916 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Skateboarding + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $47k → $719 → $8.6k → $599 → $239 (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Skateboarding + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $8.2k (exactly $8,234)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 63
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Skateboarding
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Skateboarding, Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Character Customization, Physics
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 5,623 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $720, 1 in 4 over $8.2k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Skateboarding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 21 announced
  2. + 3D PlatformerPoor odds13 devs · median $8.6k · 19 announced
  3. + SportsPoor odds24 devs · median $8.2k · 39 announced
  4. + ExplorationPoor odds15 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  5. + SimulationPoor odds20 devs · median $8.1k · 18 announced
  6. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $6.7k · 56 announced
  7. + PhysicsPoor odds19 devs · median $6.7k · 40 announced
  8. + AdventurePoor odds19 devs · median $4.8k · 28 announced
  9. + PlatformerPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced
  10. + ParkourPoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 20 announced
  11. + Open WorldPoor odds9 devs · median $2.9k · 14 announced
  12. + Action-AdventureDead11 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced

All 14 pairs on the Skateboarding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 1 + 2 older $39.99 4,497 90% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,395,051) Vicarious Visions, Iron Galaxy Studios
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 3 + 4 $49.99 1,554 68% 47k $2.3M (exactly $2,330,534) Iron Galaxy Studios
STORROR Parkour Pro · EA $24.99 1,605 71% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,268) Hole in the Sleeve Game Studios
Slackers - Carts of Glory $12.99 1,984 91% 60k $773k (exactly $773,165) Falling Saints
The Ramp older $5.99 1,104 95% 33k $198k (exactly $198,389) Paul Schnepf
OlliOlli older $12.99 422 80% 13k $164k (exactly $164,453) Roll7, General Arcade
VR Skater older $19.99 222 86% 6.7k $133k (exactly $133,133) DEFICIT Games
Motordoom older $13.99 174 94% 5.2k $73k (exactly $73,028) Hobo Cat Games
Skate City older $14.99 141 82% 4.2k $63k (exactly $63,408) Agens, Room8
STREET UNi X older $19.99 78 96% 2.3k $47k (exactly $46,777) daffodil & friends
Stardust Skate $2.99 299 98% 9.0k $27k (exactly $26,820) VchiBan, Aetha
Mop Skater $6.99 41 78% 1.2k $8.6k (exactly $8,598) youpiepoopie
cheapskate · EA $4.99 55 98% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Simple Dev Studio
Skatesterre $14.99 18 55% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) Goon Squad
Jumbo Scooter $5.00 34 85% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,100) BepeDev
Sonki's Lagoon · EA $7.99 20 95% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) CocoDev
Cow $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) ZDEsy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.