Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien game?

Aliens

Of 971 developers who shipped an Alien game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,518 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×264 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,518 games are announced against 542 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 1,518 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 971
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $748 → $1.2k → $1.1k → $719 → $539 → $480 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 971
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 5% $125k (exactly $125,431)
Developers, 2 yr 971
Released games 3,107
Announced 1,518
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 174,306 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.5k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 525 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,518 games are announced against 542 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Aliens

127 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Dating Sim + Aliens Strong odds $6.7k 20 devs
  2. Idler + Aliens Fair $1.2k 28 devs
  3. Incremental + Aliens Fair $958 41 devs
  4. Local Co-Op + Aliens Fair $628 37 devs
  5. Quick-Time Events + Aliens Fair $628 12 devs
  6. City Builder + Aliens Poor odds $8.6k 15 devs
  7. 4X + Aliens Poor odds $6.3k 7 devs
  8. Life Sim + Aliens Poor odds $6.1k 14 devs
  9. Colony Sim + Aliens Poor odds $4.6k 21 devs
  10. Online Co-Op + Aliens Poor odds $4.5k 50 devs
  11. Choose Your Own Adventure + Aliens Poor odds $4.2k 33 devs
  12. Tactical RPG + Aliens Poor odds $3.1k 12 devs
  13. Turn-Based Tactics + Aliens Poor odds $3.1k 24 devs
  14. Survival Horror + Aliens Poor odds $2.9k 62 devs
  15. Mining + Aliens Poor odds $2.7k 13 devs
  16. Turn-Based Strategy + Aliens Poor odds $2.7k 27 devs
  17. Turn-Based Combat + Aliens Poor odds $2.7k 26 devs
  18. Card Battler + Aliens Poor odds $2.7k 18 devs
  19. Visual Novel + Aliens Poor odds $2.6k 42 devs
  20. Hex Grid + Aliens Poor odds $2.6k 12 devs
  21. Sandbox + Aliens Poor odds $2.4k 47 devs
  22. Class-Based + Aliens Poor odds $2.4k 13 devs
  23. Stealth + Aliens Poor odds $2.4k 30 devs
  24. Deckbuilding + Aliens Poor odds $2.2k 30 devs
  25. Investigation + Aliens Poor odds $2.2k 34 devs
  26. Metroidvania + Aliens Poor odds $2.1k 23 devs
  27. RTS + Aliens Poor odds $1.9k 40 devs
  28. Loot + Aliens Poor odds $1.8k 24 devs
  29. 6DOF + Aliens Poor odds $1.8k 8 devs
  30. Co-op + Aliens Poor odds $1.8k 68 devs
  31. Interactive Fiction + Aliens Poor odds $1.7k 45 devs
  32. Base Building + Aliens Poor odds $1.7k 65 devs
  33. Management + Aliens Poor odds $1.7k 53 devs
  34. Resource Management + Aliens Poor odds $1.6k 64 devs
  35. Action RPG + Aliens Poor odds $1.6k 44 devs
  36. Building + Aliens Poor odds $1.5k 54 devs
  37. Economy + Aliens Poor odds $1.5k 29 devs
  38. Walking Simulator + Aliens Poor odds $1.5k 36 devs
  39. Time Management + Aliens Poor odds $1.5k 28 devs
  40. Wargame + Aliens Poor odds $1.5k 32 devs
  41. Tactical + Aliens Poor odds $1.4k 70 devs
  42. Perma Death + Aliens Poor odds $1.4k 28 devs
  43. Grid-Based Movement + Aliens Poor odds $1.4k 16 devs
  44. Exploration + Aliens Poor odds $1.2k 210 devs
  45. FPS + Aliens Poor odds $1.2k 89 devs
  46. Point & Click + Aliens Poor odds $1.2k 48 devs
  47. Crafting + Aliens Poor odds $1.2k 45 devs
  48. PvP + Aliens Poor odds $1.2k 39 devs
  49. Dungeon Crawler + Aliens Poor odds $1.2k 20 devs
  50. Bullet Heaven + Aliens Poor odds $1.2k 22 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Subnautica 2018 · $307M Halo: The Master Chief Collection 2019 · $287M Half-Life: Alyx 2020 · $167M Lethal Company 2023 · EA · $123M Dead Space 2023 · $113M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Half-Life: Alyx older $59.99 93,001 98% 2.8M $167M (exactly $167,373,900) Valve
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
Dead Space older $59.99 62,997 90% 1.9M $113M (exactly $113,375,701) Motive
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II older $39.99 87,494 88% 2.6M $105M (exactly $104,966,552) DICE
Among Us older $4.99 659,003 92% 20M $99M (exactly $98,652,749) Innersloth
Subnautica: Below Zero older $29.99 99,384 90% 3.0M $89M (exactly $89,415,785) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Black Mesa older $19.99 134,753 94% 4.0M $81M (exactly $80,811,374) Crowbar Collective
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy older $59.99 35,397 93% 1.1M $64M (exactly $63,703,981) Eidos-Montréal
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Halo: Campaign Evolved $49.99 12,512 61% 375k $19M (exactly $18,764,246) Halo Studios
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
ROUTINE $24.99 7,322 91% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) Lunar Software
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
Species: Unknown · EA $9.99 9,437 94% 283k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,269) WanadevStudio
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
High On Life 2 $39.99 2,200 71% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,639,340) Squanch Games, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.