Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Aliens

Only 12 developers shipped an Alien Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Clonizer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×5.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $65k, ×138 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $0 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,740)
Top 5% $66k (exactly $65,656)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 32
Announced 10
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 78% positive over 367 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $65k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Warhammer 40,000: Armageddon (Classic) older $19.99 945 81% 28k $567k (exactly $566,716) Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio
Pandora: First Contact older $29.99 538 61% 16k $484k (exactly $484,039) Proxy Studios
Codex of Victory older $14.99 260 69% 7.8k $117k (exactly $116,922) Ino-Co Plus
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Starport Delta older $24.99 60 66% 1.8k $45k (exactly $44,982) Cloudfire Studios
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios
Xenowars $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) Strategeion Studios
UniWar $7.99 14 71% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Spooky House
ErMa (Early Mammal) $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) AlmyriganHero
Spore Valley $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Lystrosaurus Studio
Catnip Wars $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Ender Knight
Rabbit Comes Home $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ZIPSTED
3096 $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hector Hedgecoat Industries

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.