Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Loot game?

Loot + Aliens

Of 24 developers who shipped an Alien Loot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×501 the market median. Revenue is up 865% on the market; 50 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 865% on the market, 50 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $31k → $599 → $178 → $6.5k → $41k → $14k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $41,822)
Top 5% $315k (exactly $314,842)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 54
Announced 50
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 865% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Procedural Generation, Crafting
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 2,510 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Prophecy older $24.99 2,884 79% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,162,135) NeocoreGames
Alien Shooter 2: Reloaded older $4.99 2,517 92% 76k $377k (exactly $376,795) Sigma Team Inc.
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
Space Scavenger older $12.99 289 86% 8.7k $113k (exactly $112,623) Red Cabin Games
Void Scrappers older $3.99 571 89% 17k $68k (exactly $68,349) 8BitSkull
Arms Evolution: ZOMBIE DESTROYER older $5.99 268 64% 8.0k $48k (exactly $48,160) Ash Game Studio
Warspace 2 $17.99 83 59% 2.5k $45k (exactly $44,795) Magic Game Art
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
Vortica $14.99 93 83% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Vortical Studios
Future War Tactics: SOF vs Alien Invasion – Turn-Based Strategy $9.99 138 60% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) QuadCom Interactive
Sporbs $4.99 92 78% 2.8k $14k (exactly $13,772) Who Nose Studios
Idle Stellar $4.99 45 60% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Noody Games
Void Scout $11.99 18 83% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Adversity Games Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.