Do I ship it?

Games › Metroidvania › Metroidvania + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Aliens

Of 23 developers who shipped an Alien Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $82k, ×174 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 61 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 61 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $1.9k → $31k → $45k → $49k → $1.6k → $31k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $37,775)
Top 5% $82k (exactly $82,467)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 68
Announced 61
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,276 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $82k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Eastshade 2019 · $3.9M Axiom Verge 2015 · $3.5M Zexion 2025 · $317k The Mobius Machine 2024 · $265k Xeodrifter 2014 · $221k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Eastshade older $24.99 5,183 89% 155k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,695) Eastshade Studios
Axiom Verge older $19.99 5,834 90% 175k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,650) Thomas Happ Games LLC
Zexion $19.99 528 90% 16k $317k (exactly $316,642) Gallant Leaf
The Mobius Machine older $19.99 442 82% 13k $265k (exactly $265,067) Madruga Works
Xeodrifter older $9.99 738 75% 22k $221k (exactly $221,179) Atooi
MindSeize older $14.99 213 72% 6.4k $96k (exactly $95,786) Kamina Dimension
Goodboy Galaxy $24.99 110 95% 3.3k $82k (exactly $82,467) Goodboy Galaxy Ltd.
ROLLING STAR $11.99 216 96% 6.5k $78k (exactly $77,695) NUL2 STUDIO
Moonlight Pulse older $11.99 201 92% 6.0k $72k (exactly $72,300) Seafloor Games LLC
B.I.O.T.A. older $9.99 206 85% 6.2k $62k (exactly $61,738) small bros
Otherskin $29.99 63 69% 1.9k $57k (exactly $56,681) Game Atelier
Super Roboy $14.99 109 93% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) Vincent Penning
ChainStaff $14.99 84 92% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Mommy's Best Games
Xanthiom 2 $14.99 69 97% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) MathanGames
Rhya's Crusade: The Aradia's Reavers $14.99 39 66% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Black Fortress Games
Bioframe Outpost $12.99 30 96% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) Omni Systems
Microvania $9.99 28 75% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Dreampunk

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.