Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien City Builder?

City Builder + Aliens

Only 15 developers shipped an Alien City Builder in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Drill Core, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.6k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2034 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $95k → $1.6k → $9.6k → $13k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Median $8.6k (exactly $8,635)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,420)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 41
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 3,236 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $8.6k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Command & Conquer 3 Tiberium Wars™ older $6.96 8,777 89% 263k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,638) EA Los Angeles
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Exogate Initiative $24.99 691 75% 21k $518k (exactly $518,043) Xeno Bits
Spacebase Startopia older $39.99 375 57% 11k $450k (exactly $449,888) Realmforge Studios
Startopia older $6.99 844 91% 25k $177k (exactly $176,987) My Little Planet Ltd, Mucky Foot Produc… (My Little Planet Ltd, Mucky Foot Productions Ltd)
Five Nations older $19.99 251 81% 7.5k $151k (exactly $150,525) SilverForge
The Banished Vault older $24.99 189 78% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) Lunar Division
Undead Inc. older $19.99 158 27% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Rightsized Games
Amberspire $24.99 58 86% 1.7k $43k (exactly $43,483) Lunar Division
Legends of Heropolis DX $10.99 68 42% 2.0k $22k (exactly $22,420) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Death row inmates on the run 2--The Resistance $6.99 86 55% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,034) zzzgame
Final Frontier Story $8.99 48 72% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,946) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
outpost4 $3.99 94 72% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,252) BananaDogGames
The Diner at the End of the Galaxy · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) General Interactive Co.
Cult Leader Simulator $17.99 16 50% 480 $8.6k (exactly $8,635) Nhneno
Mycelium Conquest $14.99 13 76% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) YCF Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.