Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Action RPG?

Action RPG + Aliens

Of 44 developers who shipped an Alien Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $66k, ×45 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 104 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 104 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $713 → $300 → $240 → $2.6k → $1.8k → $0 (still earning) → $32k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,556)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Top 5% $67k (exactly $66,723)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 146
Announced 104
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,051 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $66k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. Nearly all of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELEX II older $49.99 4,015 73% 120k $6.0M (exactly $6,021,296) Piranha Bytes
Starcom: Unknown Space older $24.99 4,464 92% 134k $3.3M (exactly $3,346,661) Wx3 Labs, LLC
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Prophecy older $24.99 2,884 79% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,162,135) NeocoreGames
Zombotron older $14.99 2,974 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,337,408) Ant.Karlov Games
Alien Shooter older $4.99 3,919 95% 118k $587k (exactly $586,674) Sigma Team Inc.
Star Fire: Eternal Cycle $16.99 1,012 91% 30k $516k (exactly $515,816) Ethereal Fish Studio
Alien Shooter 2 - The Legend older $14.99 1,087 52% 33k $489k (exactly $488,824) Sigma Team Inc.
Alien Shooter 2: Reloaded older $4.99 2,517 92% 76k $377k (exactly $376,795) Sigma Team Inc.
Ben 10: Power Trip older $29.99 320 78% 9.6k $288k (exactly $287,904) PHL Collective
Earth 2160 older $9.99 754 70% 23k $226k (exactly $225,974) Reality Pump Studios
Planet Lust $14.99 335 76% 10k $151k (exactly $150,650) Skullgear
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory
Let Them Come: Onslaught $7.99 216 89% 6.5k $52k (exactly $51,775) Tuatara Games
WARSHIFT 2 $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Cyril Megem
Arcadium - Space Odyssey $7.99 110 93% 3.3k $26k (exactly $26,367) Luciano Bercini
Nun of your Business $5.99 126 73% 3.8k $23k (exactly $22,642) Revolt Games
Niktophobia $7.99 63 66% 1.9k $15k (exactly $15,101) OldYacht
Rogue Courier: Phantom From a Past $18.99 21 76% 630 $12k (exactly $11,964) Pink Cookie Games, Dakzky
The SeethingSwarm Collection $9.99 25 92% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) Seethingswarm

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.