Do I ship it?

Games › Colony Sim › Colony Sim + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Colony Sim?

Colony Sim + Aliens

Of 21 developers who shipped an Alien Colony Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×825 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 43 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 43 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Colony Sim + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $300 → $22k → $9.6k → $13k (still earning) → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Colony Sim + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,420)
Top 5% $518k (exactly $518,043)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 55
Announced 43
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Colony Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Colony Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Building, Sandbox, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 3,288 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Colony Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair7 devs · median $4.6k · 11 announced
  2. + ArcadeLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 19 announced
  3. + 4XPoor odds23 devs · median $314k · 77 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  5. + Co-opPoor odds13 devs · median $73k · 54 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $73k · 21 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds42 devs · median $59k · 75 announced
  8. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds16 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds78 devs · median $58k · 168 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  11. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds48 devs · median $54k · 101 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds13 devs · median $50k · 31 announced

All 93 pairs on the Colony Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SPORE™ 2008 · $40M The Universim 2024 · $7.6M Drill Core 2025 · $1.3M Exogate Initiative 2025 · $518k Alien Marauder 2021 · EA · $194k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SPORE™ older $19.99 66,871 92% 2.0M $40M (exactly $40,102,539) Maxis™
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Exogate Initiative $24.99 691 75% 21k $518k (exactly $518,043) Xeno Bits
Alien Marauder · EA older $19.99 323 60% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) Vexan Studio
Startopia older $6.99 844 91% 25k $177k (exactly $176,987) My Little Planet Ltd, Mucky Foot Produc… (My Little Planet Ltd, Mucky Foot Productions Ltd)
Space for Sale $19.99 140 50% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mirage Game Studios
Amberspire $24.99 58 86% 1.7k $43k (exactly $43,483) Lunar Division
SpaceSlog · EA $24.99 45 66% 1.4k $34k (exactly $33,736) Produno Games Studios
Trappist older $14.99 63 88% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) Sirrah
Legends of Heropolis DX $10.99 68 42% 2.0k $22k (exactly $22,420) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Rebots $14.99 41 70% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) FlatPonies
Space Tales $14.99 35 80% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) Saigon Dragon Studios
Final Frontier Story $8.99 48 72% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,946) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
The Diner at the End of the Galaxy · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) General Interactive Co.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.