Do I ship it?

GamesCard BattlerCard Battler + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Card Battler?

Card Battler + Aliens

Only 18 developers shipped an Alien Card Battler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Down with the Ship, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×773 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 28 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 28 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Battler + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.7k → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Battler + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $367k (exactly $367,405)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 34
Announced 28
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Card Battler; all of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelite, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,336 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Battler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ArcadeFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  2. + Bullet HellFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  3. + GamblingFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 77 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  5. + ZombiesFair17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  6. + Point & ClickFair25 devs · median $629 · 34 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair35 devs · median $628 · 33 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair43 devs · median $449 · 57 announced
  9. + Party GameFair28 devs · median $449 · 35 announced
  10. + SolitaireLong shot77 devs · median $299 · 79 announced
  11. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds33 devs · median $31k · 56 announced
  12. + CRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced

All 125 pairs on the Card Battler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Stellar Orphans $16.99 139 71% 4.2k $71k (exactly $70,848) Artifex Parvus
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Corrupted: Dawn of Havoc · EA older $14.99 75 65% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) 36Litters
Steve's Warehouse: Physics. Roguelike. Chaos. $7.99 130 87% 3.9k $31k (exactly $31,161) Definitely Named Steve
Planet Stronghold: Colonial Defense older $19.99 31 74% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) Winter Wolves
OMEGA 6 The Triangle Stars $14.99 37 91% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Takaya Imamura, Happymeal, Pleocene
Forsaken Portals older $18.99 24 75% 720 $14k (exactly $13,673) Pottgames
Card Coder $14.99 27 74% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Prof. Scherer
Dark Cards older $9.99 23 69% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Pixel Cattle Games
Witchcrafter The TCG $15.99 12 83% 360 $5.8k (exactly $5,756) Spear Group Limited
Vox Populi: USA 2024 $7.99 15 80% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Velsin
Hexitten $14.99 7 100% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) Korkea Maki Studios
Star Scum · EA $14.99 6 83% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) Soft Realm

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.