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Should I ship an Alien Tactical RPG?
Tactical RPG + Aliens
Only 12 developers shipped an Alien Tactical RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Every Day We Fight, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×552 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) |
| Top 25% | $8.6k (exactly $8,635) |
| Top 5% | $346k (exactly $346,384) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 42 |
| Announced | 29 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Tactical RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Aliens
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Tactical RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 8 games average 75% positive over 529 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + Space SimFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + RobotsPoor odds
- + RomancePoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
XCOM®: Chimera Squad 2020 · $6.2M 
Phoenix Point 2020 · $4.0M 
Every Day We Fight 2025 · EA · $346k 
Templar Battleforce 2015 · $279k 
Black & White 2023 · $275k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | XCOM®: Chimera Squad | older | $9.99 | 20,602 71% | 618k | $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) | Firaxis Games |
| | Phoenix Point | older | $24.99 | 5,375 73% | 161k | $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) | Snapshot Games Inc. |
| | Every Day We Fight | · EA | $29.99 | 385 72% | 12k | $346k (exactly $346,384) | Signal Space Lab |
| | Templar Battleforce | older | $9.99 | 931 92% | 28k | $279k (exactly $279,021) | Trese Brothers |
| | Black & White | older | $14.99 | 612 71% | 18k | $275k (exactly $275,216) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
 | Earth 2160 | older | $9.99 | 754 70% | 23k | $226k (exactly $225,974) | Reality Pump Studios |
 | Spaceland: Sci-Fi Indie Tactics | older | $19.99 | 358 75% | 11k | $215k (exactly $214,693) | Tortuga Team |
 | Alien Shooter TD | older | $9.99 | 676 84% | 20k | $203k (exactly $202,597) | Sigma Team Inc. |
 | UFO2: Extraterrestrials | older | $34.99 | 144 60% | 4.3k | $151k (exactly $151,157) | Chaos Concept |
 | VoidBound | · EA older | $19.99 | 85 91% | 2.6k | $51k (exactly $50,974) | CursedAtelier |
 | Live Hard, Die Hard | $4.99 | 83 89% | 2.5k | $12k (exactly $12,425) | Asobism.Co.,Ltd | |
 | Cult Leader Simulator | $17.99 | 16 50% | 480 | $8.6k (exactly $8,635) | Nhneno | |
 | Void Scout | $11.99 | 18 83% | 540 | $6.5k (exactly $6,475) | Adversity Games Ltd. | |
 | Expedition: Shadow World | $15.99 | 12 100% | 360 | $5.8k (exactly $5,756) | Pavel Tanonov | |
 | Hexitten | $14.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) | Korkea Maki Studios | |
 | Ironseed 3 : Vigil | $17.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $540 (exactly $540) | Robert Morgan | |
 | The Vanguard Expanse 4065 | $1.99 | 7 57% | 210 | $418 (exactly $418) | Cryo Sleep Studios | |
 | The Blue Stars | $9.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Jack Tyrrell | |
 | XENO SIEGE | $2.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | bulanke |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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